SPC Outlook
Severe weather forecasts issued by the Storm Prediction Center categorizing risk levels from Marginal (1) to High (5). Outlooks cover tornadoes, damaging winds, and large hail for 1-3 days ahead and highlight where organized severe weather is most likely.
More Forecasting & Models Terms
Watch vs. Warning
A watch means the risk of hazardous weather has risen but its timing, location, or occurrence is still uncertain: be prepared. A warning means hazardous weather is occurring, imminent, or likely and threatens life or property: take action now. An advisory covers events that are occurring or likely but less serious than a warning.
CAPE
CAPE (Convective Available Potential Energy) is the amount of energy a rising parcel of air can draw from the atmosphere, measured in joules per kilogram (J/kg). The higher the CAPE, the faster a storm's updraft can rise, and the stronger thunderstorms can become once something sets them off.
Lifted Index
A stability index comparing the temperature of a rising air parcel to the environment at 500mb (about 18,000 feet). Negative values indicate instability. Values below -6 suggest strong instability and severe thunderstorm potential.
NAM
North American Mesoscale Model, a regional weather model covering North America at 3-12 km resolution and NCEP's short-range workhorse for mesoscale features like fronts, lake-effect snow, and sea breezes. Its successor is the Rapid Refresh Forecast System (RRFS) with its ensemble REFS, and the same changeover ends SREF, HREF, HiresW, and NAM MOS. The National Weather Service notice of October 2, 2026 set the changeover date as November 3, 2026, moved from October 14.
GFS
Global Forecast System, the primary American global weather model run by NOAA. The GFS provides forecasts out to 16 days and is widely used for medium-range forecasting. It runs four times daily with global coverage.
HRRR
High-Resolution Rapid Refresh, a real-time 3km resolution weather model updated hourly. The HRRR excels at short-range (0-18 hour) forecasts of convection, precipitation, and aviation weather across the contiguous United States.
Ensemble Forecast
A collection of multiple model runs with slightly different initial conditions, showing the range of possible outcomes. Ensemble forecasts help quantify uncertainty and are especially valuable for medium-range predictions.
Probability of Precipitation
Probability of precipitation (PoP) is the chance that a given point receives measurable precipitation, at least 0.01 inch, during the forecast period. A 40% chance of rain means a 4 in 10 chance of at least 0.01 inch at your location. It does not mean rain over 40% of the area or for 40% of the time.
ECMWF
ECMWF is the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, an intergovernmental organization supported by 35 states, and the name commonly given to its global weather model, often called the European model or the Euro. Its physics-based Integrated Forecasting System (IFS) runs on a global grid of about 9 km and forecasts up to 15 days ahead.
Zulu Time
Zulu time, written with a Z, is the name used in aviation and meteorology for Coordinated Universal Time (UTC), the time at the Greenwich prime meridian. Weather observations, model runs, and aviation reports all use it so that a time means the same thing everywhere. 12Z is 8 in the morning Eastern Daylight Time and 7 in the morning Eastern Standard Time.
SPC Outlook: Guides and Explainers
These explainers connect this definition to real-world forecasting and decision-making.
Weather Education
How Tornadoes Form: Types, EF Scale, and Safety
Learn how tornadoes form from supercell thunderstorms, the Enhanced Fujita scale, types of tornadoes, and critical safety steps to protect yourself.
Weather Education
GFS vs HRRR vs NAM: Which Weather Model Should You Trust?
Learn the differences between GFS, HRRR, NAM, and the Euro model. Understand which forecast model to trust for different situations and how weather enthusiasts can interpret model data.
Weather Education
Moisture, Instability, Lift, and Wind Shear: The 4 Storm Ingredients
Learn the four thunderstorm ingredients meteorologists look for: moisture, instability, lift, and wind shear, plus how they combine to create severe storms.
Helpful Tools and Hubs
Use these pages to apply the concept, compare conditions, or follow related weather workflows.
Guide
How to Read SPC Outlooks
Decode severe weather outlooks, probability maps, and categorical risk levels before storms arrive.
Feature
Severe Weather
Follow outlooks, watches, warnings, and storm signals in one severe-weather workflow.
Seasonal Hub
Severe Weather Season Guide
A seasonal hub for tornadoes, hail, damaging winds, and storm-prep reading.
Glossary
Tornado
A tornado is a violently rotating column of air in contact with the ground, extending from a thunderstorm.
Explore Other Terms
Tropical Depression
An organized system of clouds and thunderstorms with defined circulation and maximum sustained winds of 38 mph or less. Tropical depressions can strengthen into tropical storms and eventually hurricanes.
Ice Storm
A storm that produces significant ice accumulation from freezing rain, typically 0.25 inches or more. Ice storms can down trees and power lines, causing widespread outages lasting days to weeks. They are among the most damaging winter weather events.
Small Craft Advisory
A Small Craft Advisory is a National Weather Service alert for winds or seas that are hazardous to small boats in coastal and Great Lakes waters. The wind and sea thresholds are set separately for each geographic area. There is no precise definition of a small craft: any vessel that the conditions could affect counts.
Red Flag Warning
A Red Flag Warning is a National Weather Service alert that weather conditions could cause extreme fire behavior. It is issued when those conditions are occurring or expected within 24 hours. Typical criteria combine dry fuels with sustained winds of 15 mph or more and relative humidity of 25% or less, and exact thresholds vary by state and local office.
El Niño and La Niña
El Niño and La Niña are the warm and cool phases of a recurring climate pattern in the tropical Pacific called the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). During El Niño, the trade winds weaken and the central and eastern tropical Pacific runs warmer than average. During La Niña, the trade winds strengthen and the same waters run cooler. Both shift weather patterns worldwide.
Kp Index
The Kp index is a 0 to 9 scale of global geomagnetic activity, reported in 3-hour intervals from ground-based magnetometers. A Kp of 5 or higher indicates a geomagnetic storm, and the values map onto NOAA's G-scale from G1 (Kp 5) to G5 (Kp 9). The higher the Kp, the farther from the poles the aurora can be seen.
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